Tim Kelley is back for winter 25+26 with his thorough, entertaining, and exciting weather reports. Watch this space for news about incoming weather and snow.
January 16th, 2026
Chaotic weather and temperature swings ~ The Jay Way!
We sure have weathered a lot of different kinds of weather this week. The temperature was so cold, then it was pretty warm, then it was really cold again. With every fluctuation in temperature, we got another little layer of snow. Those little layers of snow added up to 1 to 2 feet again this week.
Next up, not much change, the temperature's going to keep on swinging, but not warm enough for anything but snow. After a few hours of brisk sunshine on our Friday afternoon, it’s going to snow again on our warmer Saturday. The temperature, as of this writing at 1 PM Friday, is still only about 0° at the summit. Colder than they said!
The weather system that brought our mid-week wintry mix is now out in the North Atlantic and powering up. That was the reason for the wind and the chill early Friday. But it’s moving so fast that the release is very quick ~ again ~ much like what happened back on Monday and Tuesday. Remember Tuesday, "A dinger of a midweek day". Now we get a dinger on a weekend day. Maybe not as much sunshine as Tuesday, but it’s warmer, and it’s snowing again.
Without the Greenland block, the flow is very progressive. We continue to get colder and colder in central Canada and we continue to get these pulses of energy coming up the East Coast. So even though we have not had an organized storm, the pulsing waves along the fronts have been the reason we have had snow pretty much every day since last Saturday. We are on a new streak of days in a row with snow, now passing day 7.
A mostly clear start to our Friday night will offer some radiational cooling, so the temperature will probably hold in the single numbers the first part of the night. But then the air starts moving back in from the southwest again. Hopefully not too strong, but it will push the temperature back into the 20s Saturday morning. With the return of our snow cloud.
By afternoon we should have another inch or two of snow, with the temperature in the upper 20s and wind out of the south at about 10 mph. Yes, "A Dinger of A Weekend Day!"
I think we might do it again on Sunday. Once again, a pretty nice day with temps starting off around 15° under mostly cloudy skies. Then mostly cloudy with a little more snow. Maybe another inch or two. Wind out of the west at about 15 to 20 miles an hour should not be a problem.
Meteorologists have been wrestling with what to do with a possible major coastal storm. Once again, it’s like a major coastal storm remains elusive. It’s sort of an atmosphere tug of war going on Sunday. Another strong low pressure system and some colder air coming across Lake Superior, and another pulse of energy going up the East Coast.
The system from the west seems unable to capture the system from the south. So that means they remain separate and we just get a cold front coming at us Sunday night and Monday. It’s another arctic front a lot like the one that came in Thursday night. But I think the air might be colder on the backside of that one. And as it goes over us on Monday, it’ll be snowing again. Temperatures will be closer to 20°, with the wind starting off on the lighter side but beginning to gust from the southwest during the afternoon. Temperature falls into the teens. Probably another 2 to 4 inches of snow Monday afternoon and evening.
Then on Tuesday, we have another arctic chill day much like this Friday afternoon. With new arctic air in place, maybe the sun is visible through the clouds, and diamond dust snow also, with the temperature holding in the single numbers. Obnoxious wind though.
That’ll be about the 11th Arctic intrusion of the winter so far. But without the Greenland Block, it’s gonna lift out very quickly with a warm front showing up on Wednesday. So on Wednesday we may start off near 0° or below zero. But the sky will fill with clouds and it'll start to snow again, with the high temperature in the 20s. Then another Jay Cloud front on Wednesday night, with another batch of colder air coming in next Thursday, a few more inches of snow.
That should be about another 10 to 15 inches again by late next week. But this time without any funky kind of precipitation mixed in. We are back in a colder wave. And that colder wave may double down next weekend with some of the lowest temperatures of the last couple of winters. Canada is really cold.
Eventually, we are going to get a major storm for all of New England, but we just can’t see where it is.
Have fun riding all these wintry waves.
The Jay Way.
Talk again, Tuesday.
TK
